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Statewide decrease in unemployment may not be positive
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HARRISBURG - The decrease in statewide unemployment rates in November, announced by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry (DLI) last week, may not be as positive as it first appears, according to DLI analyst Scott Meckley.
Ideally, he said, when unemployment drops, one hopes it is because people are finding jobs.
"I wish it were that simple," he said Tuesday afternoon.
Although there have been indications that the economy is healing and employers are looking to hire again, there has been no direct correlation between the drop in unemployment and an increase in employment, said Meckley.
"We saw a definite drop in unemployment, but the increase in employment wasn't quite the same," he said.
According to Meckley, this could be a sign that job-seeking individuals have become discouraged due to the lack of employment opportunities and have perhaps given up their search.
In order for a person to be considered unemployed by DLI definition, they must be 16 years or older and actively searching for a job. Full-time college students not seeking employment would not be counted.
The November unemployment rate for all 67 counties in Pennsylvania, excluding Huntington County, either decreased slightly or remained the same, according to data released by DLI last week.
Northumberland County's unemployment rate, which steadily increased throughout the first 10 months of 2009, dropped from 10.6 percent in October to 10.1 percent in November, the most significant change last year.
Each county usually follows the same pattern of the state, said Meckley.
From October to November, Pennsylvania's rate decreased from 8.9 percent to 8.5 percent. The majority of counties followed a similar decrease.
Although employers around the time of the decrease may have been hiring seasonable employees, those numbers would not affect the rate. The rates are seasonably adjusted to take these factors into consideration, said Meckley.
Commonly, he said, retailers hire and construction crews lay off employees, which are also considered in the seasonally adjusted rates.
"The unemployment rate dropping this month does not have anything to do with Black Friday," said Meckley.
Although DLI tends to downplay single month moments in increases and decreases, "We are used to seeing the rate increase. It was refreshing to see that (decrease) for a change," said Meckley.
The spikes tend to happen more commonly in rural communities such as Northumberland and its neighboring counties, he said.
This was especially true for Snyder County, which saw a large jump from 9.5 percent in September to 10.8 percent in October. By November, it had dropped to 8.9 percent.
Last month, it was reported that at least 1,700 Northumberland County-based jobs had been lost from major companies closing their plants or laying off employees since early 2008. Many of the employees who lost their jobs as a result of plant closings have yet to find work.
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