Corbett has edge in race for GOP

Part 2 of 2

In an election for governor that by historic standards is their turn to win, Republicans have a clear front-runner.

Unlike the five-man Democratic governor field, which polls show is bunched together, Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett has sprinted ahead without really trying hard so far.

For the moment, that puts him in the best position next year to be the Republican who replaces Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell and continues the five-decade trend of alternating Republican and Democratic governors every eight years.

Right after Corbett announced his candidacy, polls by Quinnipiac University and Franklin & Marshall College showed him with a substantial lead over his lone challenger then, U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach, who represents a suburban Philadelphia congressional district. The Quinnipiac poll had it at 42 to 13 percent, Franklin & Marshall at 30 to 18 percent.

"I think it is clear there is a certain amount of coalescing around the attorney general," said political analyst G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., who heads the F&M poll.

Corbett has earned front-runner status. He is the best-known Republican candidate because he has been on the statewide political scene the longest. Before his five years as attorney general, he was

U.S. attorney for western Pennsylvania and was the man named attorney general in 1995 when Ernie Preate resigned amid scandal.

Last year, as then-Sen. Barack Obama and Democrats were dominating Pennsylvania's elections, Corbett racked up more than 3 million votes in soundly defeating Democrat John Morganelli to win a second four-year term. It was the most votes ever for a Republican candidate in a state with 1.1 million more Democrats.

In the past two months, three former Republican governors - Dick Thornburgh, Tom Ridge and Mark Schweiker - endorsed Corbett. On Thursday, he announced charges against 10 Republicans, including former House Speaker John Perzel, on charges related to the use of state money for political purposes.

Coupled with the arrest of a dozen Democrats two years ago, he has developed a reputation as a reformer at a time when polls show Pennsylvanians holding their elected state leaders in the lowest esteem ever.

For now, all signs point favorably toward him with six months before the May 18 primary election.

"It's a long way to the primary," said former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton, who is backing Gerlach. "You're going to have to go out and get votes. Despite the victory he had last year, there is uncertainty about him from more conservative voting Republicans."

That is somewhat puzzling. On social issues, Corbett opposes abortion rights and gay marriage and is pro-gun rights.

Despite that, some conservatives see a gap in the Republican race. Into that gap, they are getting behind state Rep. Sam Rohrer, a Berks County Republican, who has made eliminating local property taxes by broadening the sales tax his cause. Rohrer announced his candidacy last week.

Supporters are portraying him as someone who meets conservative litmus tests on social issues but is a real fiscal conservative, too.

"Sam is really a grass-roots-up conservative," said former state Rep. Jeff Coleman, a political consultant and senior adviser/strategist to Rohrer's campaign. "We haven't had, other than Bill Scranton, kind of a free-market, pro-growth solutions guy. What you've had is a lot of people who've said, 'I am a conservative, I'm pro-life, I'm pro-Second Amendment,' check the boxes off and then do the traditional Harrisburg approach to compromise and agenda-building."

To say Rohrer is no real threat and Corbett can rest easy is to ignore other numbers in the polls: more than 4 in 10 (43 percent) in the Quinnipiac poll and almost 6 in 10 (57 percent) in the F&M poll remained undecided.

"It's not by any stretch a settled field," Coleman said.

In a state Republican Party decidedly more conservative because of the defection of tens of thousands of moderates to the Democrats before the presidential election, Rohrer could give comfort to some conservatives. But all three Republicans are certain to tailor messages to conservative voters in the primary.

The early jockeying has been about Corbett. Gerlach has demanded the attorney general resign, saying Corbett has an inherent conflict of interest in investigating Republicans while also raising money from them. Gerlach points out Perzel and his also-charged former chief of staff, Brian J. Preski, hosted a 2007 fundraiser for his second run for attorney general. Last year, Corbett stopped taking contributions from House members.

"There has been very little contact with those individuals ... once we understood where this investigation was going," he said last week.

Afterward, Kori Walter, a spokesman for Gerlach, continued to make the case against Corbett serving as attorney general and running for governor at the same time.

"This has never been about whether he indicted an equal number of Republicans," Walter said. "The issue is, can you prosecute by day and campaign by night?"

Brian Nutt, Corbett's campaign manager, said Corbett has shown he does his job.

"Throughout anything that he's done, he's done it professionally, he's done it in a nonpartisan manner," Nutt said.

Mum on finances

Financially, none of the candidates has disclosed his standing, but Corbett might have a distinct advantage there, too. Some of the top Republican fundraisers are in his corner, and he raised and spent more than $4 million to get re-elected as attorney general.

Gerlach has a history of being able to raise money, raising about $2.3 million in 2004 and 2008 and $3.3 million in 2006 in runs for Congress.

Rohrer, who has never run statewide, spent more than $150,000 on his re-election last year, and might be able to tap into fiscal conservative support.

None of the candidates has released current fundraising numbers.

Chris Borick, Ph.D., who runs the polling institute at Muhlenberg College, said Corbett's charges against Republicans "take any claims that he's on a partisan witch hunt off the table" and add to his reputation.

"He's in a good position, and I think of all the candidates on either side, he is the one you can reasonably call a front-runner," Borick said.

The Republicans

Here are each Republican governor candidate's strengths and weaknesses heading into the six months of campaigning leading up to the May 18 primary election.

Tom Corbett

Strengths: Best-known candidate on either side. A proven ability to raise money, a veteran of statewide campaigns, and has the support of three former Republican governors. With voters furious at Harrisburg, his prosecution of political corruption in the Legislature is a huge plus. Some executive experience because he runs a $100 million state agency. Showed an appeal among Democrats by winning re-election big last year when Democrats dominated.

Weaknesses: The support of three former Republican governors and other party leaders detracts reformer image. Certainly, his opponents will say he's an insider. He's also from western Pennsylvania, when the biggest part of the Republican base remains the southeast.

Jim Gerlach

Strengths: He's from the southeast. Tap into those votes and you can win the state, as Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell showed. Has won three tough re-election races, and shown an ability to raise money. For someone not well-known statewide, drawing 18 percent of voters in one poll against a well-known opponent shows something.

Weaknesses: Has never run statewide and in a race against a well-known Republican who has. Social conservatives might have doubts because of his past opposition to the gay-marriage constitutional amendment.

Sam Rohrer

Strengths: Hard to say. Hoping to become the darling of conservatives at a time Republican voters are leaning more to the right, he's somewhat well-known in conservative Republican circles statewide. A staunch advocate of eliminating school property taxes by broadening the sales tax. Might be able to raise some money from conservative donors.

Weaknesses: Generally unknown among most Pennsylvanians. Has never run statewide or shown an ability to raise the large sums of money necessary to win a statewide campaign.

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